Showing posts with label government takeover. Show all posts
Showing posts with label government takeover. Show all posts

Monday, November 9, 2009

Never bet against Barry Obama: how we’ve gotten to where we are on health care reform

Everyone knows that pitchers purposely throw balls to set up “out” pitches later in the count. But do hitters ever purposely swing and miss at hittable pitches? If anyone does it, you know it’s gotta be Manny Ramirez. It’s rumored that Manny purposely misses easy pitches in April to throw off scouting reports—so pitchers won’t be afraid to throw the same, crushable pitch in September and October when it really matters. Baseball guru Bill James swears that Manny purposely gets into full counts with a runner on first, so the runner can take off with the pitch and score on a well-hit ball. Manny’s so good, he can purposely dig himself into a hole just so his opponents are more surprised when he blasts out of it. No matter how bad it looks, you never bet against Manny.

And you never bet against Barry—Barry Obama, that is. Despite a summer of cynicism, replete with media obituaries of his administration not ten months into its first term, health care reform passed the House Saturday night.

To be sure, there’s still a long way to go in the Senate, but I’m going to go ahead and predict exactly that: the Senate will pass health care reform and the President will sign it into law. (True, Joe Lieberman’s filibuster threat would seem to pose an insurmountable obstacle, but I’m gonna call his bluff—this seems like a childish ploy for attention, not a serious threat.)

Why am I so confident in my prediction? It’s not based on media reports, although the Economist does report:
Harry Reid, the majority leader of the Senate, said that he may have the 60 votes necessary to pass a version of the health-reform bill that includes some form of public plan. A public plan may, therefore, now be politically viable again.

It’s not based on insider knowledge, although sources do tell me:
Senator Reid’s decision to include a public option in the Senate bill will likely give him enough support within the Democratic Conference to bring a bill to the floor. He then will determine which public option compromise (trigger or state opt-in) can get the 60 votes required to end a filibuster… While the next few weeks will be difficult once the bills reach the floor, it will be hard for Republicans to stop the President’s top domestic priority and the top domestic goal of the Democratic party for six decades. [Notice that it’s not “whether” a public option can get 60 votes, but “which” version of the public option will be included.]

It has nothing to do with electoral math, Nate Silver-esque modeling, or statements from Senators—although Sen. Baucus does state there’s a “sense of inevitability.”

The reason I’m predicting passage of health care reform is simple: I’ve learned never to bet against Obama, because he wins. Some people just have an innate ability to come through in the clutch, to not lose no matter what. Michael Jordan had it. LeBron has it (and it’s gonna take him to a title in the next couple seasons). And Barack Obama has it. All through the election, whenever the media counted him out (down 30 points in the polls to Hillary, “Bittergate,” Jeremiah Wright, Sarah Palin’s Convention speech), he stuck to his plan and pulled out the W. Now that it’s actually time to get things done, I feel the same mojo about him. He’s like the Mike Jordan of reforming, the Papi of the Potomac (2004-07 version), the Tiger Woods of Washington. Like Tom Brady (pre-David Tyree), you know that no matter what’s happened for the first 58 minutes, he’s coming through in the last two.
Think about where we were just weeks ago. For months, the President endured a cacophonous chorus of conservative contempt, clamoring breathlessly over death panels and socialism. Meanwhile, pessimistic progressives pleaded for the President to abandon bipartisanship and rely on the Democrats’ 60-vote majority to ram reform through the Senate. They criticized his arms-length strategy of outlining broad principles and leaving the details to Congress, and couldn’t understand why, with 60 Democratic Senators, he was pursuing bipartisanship with an opposition whose guiding principle was “Whatever it is, I’m against it.” The media all too happily promoted the negativity, pronouncing health care reform dead on arrival—and the Obama administration with it.

But, recognizing the pessimism as the product of a 24-hour news cycle obsessed with short-term events, the President pressed on. A month ago, progressives fretted and conservatives thought they smelled blood in the water—and yet here we are, closer to health care reform than at any point since Teddy Roosevelt came up with the idea 97 years ago. Even before passage by the House, last Monday’s New York Times reported:
President Obama’s arms-length strategy on health care appears to be paying dividends… Democratic leaders and senior White House officials are sounding increasingly confident that Mr. Obama will sign legislation overhauling the nation’s health care system — a goal that has eluded American presidents for decades.

So how did we get here, and how did the pessimists get it so wrong? Pretty easily: the President played them all like Manny Ramirez—putting himself in a bad position early on, only to lull his opponents into making a mistake when it counted. Like in baseball, it’s fall, not summer, that counts.

Obama’s strategy seems to have been to give in to Republican demands until, tempted into overconfidence by the concessions they’d already won, they rejected one compromise too many, exposing the true nature of their obstructionism. That moment seems to have been in August when Sen. Chuck Grassley, a “moderate” seen then as the best hope for compromise, endorsed Sarah Palin’s death panel myth, and subsequently sent out a fundraising letter detailing his opposition to “Obamacare.” From that point on, Obama could credibly point out, “look, we’ve given in to everything the Republicans have demanded, and they still say no.”

In other words, knowing full well from the beginning that the GOP would never give in to ANY concession, Obama was able to offer extremely generous concessions that he never intended to implement, anticipating that when the GOP rejected even those, he could move on unilaterally while credibly claiming to have pursued bipartisanship.

In short, if you’re a progressive who’s nervous that Obama is swinging and missing at a fat pitch over the plate, don’t be—he’s been just what he was on the campaign trail: calm, determined, and relentless. I’m not sure who said it, Jay-Z or Nas, but I do know this about Barack Obama: he… will… not… lose. Just look at this face:


Thursday, October 15, 2009

Bullish on the Baucus Bill: Why I won’t be bummed if we don't get a public option

Something happened the other day that made me reconsider the malaise I felt toward the Baucus Bill: I got a blood test.


Two days ago we heard the major news that the Senate Finance Committee had passed Max Baucus’s health care reform bill by a vote of 14-9, preparing the way for a vote on the House and Senate floors. There’s still work to be done, but make no mistake: this is a major achievement. At no time in our nation’s history have we ever been this close to such major health care reform.


Still, many progressives are disappointed in the bill, mainly over its lack of a public insurance option. Some see it as a worst-of-both-worlds compromise: a taxpayer giveaway to parasitic insurance companies that does nothing do control insurance costs. And until a few days ago I was one of them.


But then I got that blood test. And a flu shot. And a body mass index exam. And all of it was paid for by my insurance provider, United Health Care (UHC).


This was all part of a free flu shot clinic and wellness examination that UHC put on for everyone at my company, in our building’s cafeteria. I walked in at 4:00 for my flu shot, filled out my forms, and sat down to wait. I wasn’t officially scheduled for the wellness exam until 4:30, but when they noticed that line was shorter than the one for flu shots, they told me to go ahead to get it done faster. They pricked my finger, took my blood pressure, and sent me to have my body fat analyzed by a hand-held machine. And by the time that was done and I’d also had my flu shot, they’d completed blood glucose and cholesterol analyses on my blood sample – on site. My total cholesterol looked high, so they sat me down with a health coach, who explained that it was actually just my good cholesterol that was high, so I had nothing to worry about (thanks for the good genes Mom and Dad!). The health coach gave me some healthy eating tips and sent me on my way. I was back at my desk by 4:25 – five minutes before I was scheduled to have my checkup.


UHC has received much-deserved scorn for its practice of rescission, so what’s going on here? Why are they all of a sudden being so nice and giving me all this free health care?


Perhaps they knew that, as a powerful blogger, I could influence the 60 or so of you who will read this to like them more, and they hatched a nefarious plot to win me over. Somehow I doubt this.


Maybe they were just doing it out of the goodness of their hearts. But we already know that few corporations, especially health insurance companies, have hearts. The profit motive is their only motive.


And that's the reason UHC provided an in-office health care clinic at my company: it has a profit motive to keep its customers healthy. On the revenue side, companies will pay a premium for health benefits providers that keep their employees healthy and productive. At the very least, the clinics are a branding and PR exercise. On the cost side, simple preventive steps like cholesterol readings can identify risk factors early on, enabling people to change their behaviors or get treatments before more costly procedures become necessary. UHC doesn’t want me to develop diabetes and cost them thousands of dollars each year, so they have an interest in making sure I eat right.


Of course, as always, there’s a caveat: I have group insurance. UHC doesn’t ask me about preexisting conditions, and they can’t rescind my coverage if I get sick (as long as I stay in my current job). My company employs 2,000 people, so we have leverage; if one person starts costing UHC money, it’s not worth it to drop the entire company's benefit and lose the other 1,999, or to hike rates and risk losing my company’s business to another benefits provider. Thus, it’s in UHC’s interest to reduce the risk of costly benefits payouts by investing in preventive care. In my case, the profit motive works in my favor.


If on the other hand, you get your insurance on the individual market or through a small business, you’re not so lucky; in past posts where I've argued about the danger of leaving health care to the profit motive, this is what I was referring to. On the individual market, insurance companies simply refuse to cover anyone they deem as risky, or else charge unaffordable premiums – ensuring that the people most likely to need health care can’t afford it. In the small business market where the employee risk pool is small, one sick employee jeopardizes the profitability of the risk pool for the insurance company - and with it the insurance coverage of all the other employees. When this happens, insurance companies will often jack up premiums for the entire business to cover the one sick employee's cost, in many cases forcing the small business to drop its health benefit. The small business has no leverage.


If you don’t have group coverage, it’s simply more profitable for the insurance company to exclude or drop you if you become sick, so they have no interest in keeping you well. There’s just no money selling health insurance to sick people.


There's another problem with the market. You would expect that insurance companies, faced with escalating health care costs, would pressure hospitals to run more efficiently and medical device makers to invent cheaper devices, but they haven't done so. This is a mystery to me. I'm not an expert, but I imagine that the reason is a combination of two factors: consumer preferences and lack of competition. Consumers confuse health care with health outcomes, assuming that more treatment is always better. As a result, they demand that insurance companies pay for any and all treatments. Similarly, unions and benefits managers like providing their employees with generous health benefits - after all, complex benefits are what justify their jobs; witness their opposition to taxation of "Cadillac" health plans. At the same time, the relative lack of competition between insurance companies dilutes the incentive to find ways to provide the same benefit at lower cost - without rivals willing to undercut their prices, they can simply pass through the higher costs in the form of higher premiums. [Can anyone enlighten me on this paragraph? If you have some expertise, please explain in the comments section.]


Clearly, the health care market is broken. It’s up to the government to fix the market so it works in the People’s best interests. Give insurance companies a stake in their customers’ health, and they will find ways to keep them healthy at the lowest possible cost.


For this to happen, reform must do two things. First, it must make sure insurance companies actually have to pay for your health care when you get sick. Second, it must prevent insurance companies from simply passing these costs through to customers as higher premiums; this can be accomplished either by fostering competition or through legislative fiat.


The Baucus bill actually does a pretty good job on both fronts. It bans rescission. It requires insurers to sell you coverage regardless of preexisting conditions. It places limits on the premiums insurance companies can charge, and restricts the criteria for which companies can charge higher premiums (age, tobacco use, and family size - I would argue that obesity should be a criteria as well). And it creates competition: by creating insurance exchanges where people can shop around for policies, and by allowing the purchase of insurance across state lines starting in 2015. Creating a public option would probably the best and simplest means of fostering competition, but I'm certainly not wedded to it as the ONLY way.


When insurance companies can no longer just drop customers when they need expensive health care, and can't cover expenses simply by raising premiums ad infinitum, all of a sudden there's a powerful incentive to make sure their customers never need those expensive treatments - and that the treatments they do need don't cost the company a fortune. Essentially, what you're doing is telling insurance companies they must keep their patients healthy - and that they have limited dollars to do so.


This sounds like a tough, even unfair, spot to be in. How could insurance companies ever accomplish this? Conventional wisdom holds that all the money we throw at health care is what drives America's health care innovation machine.


But in fact, history suggests that reducing available funds can have a similar effect on innovation; when faced with a limited number of health care dollars to compete for, businesses can and will innovate low-cost treatments. Just as agriculture was invented in the desert, businesses are most inventive in the face of necessity.


Need proof? Check out what GE Healthcare is doing in India. Conventional wisdom holds that with a per capital GDP only 5% that of the United States', India would be a poor market for a company that makes million-dollar imaging machines, but that's exactly where GE Healthcare decided to invest. And the risk paid off. The need to serve people without much money to spend on health care has produced a $1,000 electrocardiogram device and a $15,000 PC-based ultrasound machine - roughly 15% the price of the top-end devices sold in the US. And costs keep falling. In fact, today GE is finding markets in the United States for these "50% solutions at 15% prices":


Consider GE’s health-care business in the United States. It used to make most of its money on premium computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR) imaging machines. But to succeed in the era of broader access and reduced reimbursement that President Obama hopes to bring about, the business will probably need to increase by 50% the number of products it offers at lower price points. And that doesn’t mean just cheaper versions of high-tech products like imaging machines. The company also must create more offerings like the heated bassinet it developed for India, which has great potential in US inner cities, where infant deaths related to the cold remain high. And let’s not forget that technology often can be improved until it satisfies more demanding customers. The compact ultrasound, which can now handle imaging applications that previously required a conventional machine, is one example.


Anticipating the effects of health care reform, GE recently announced a plan to invest $3 billion to invent 100 more low-cost medical solutions in the US. Reading the article, I can scarcely contain my optimism over companies' abilities to innovate if given the right carrots (or sticks).


There may be other, less obvious benefits. According to some estimates, 30% of health care costs are due to obesity. Sticking insurance companies with the bill would give them a powerful reason to do everything they can to make sure Americans eat better. Indeed, as Prof. Michael Pollan of Berkeley argues, health care reform could pit insurance lobbyists against Big Food, fighting to end government subsidies for the foods that make us unhealthy:


As for the insurers, you would think preventing chronic diseases would be good business, but, at least under the current rules, it’s much better business simply to keep patients at risk for chronic disease out of your pool of customers, whether through lifetime caps on coverage or rules against pre-existing conditions or by figuring out ways to toss patients overboard when they become ill.


But these rules may well be about to change — and, when it comes to reforming the American diet and food system, that step alone could be a game changer. Even under the weaker versions of health care reform now on offer, health insurers would be required to take everyone at the same rates, provide a standard level of coverage and keep people on their rolls regardless of their health. Terms like “pre-existing conditions” and “underwriting” would vanish from the health insurance rulebook — and, when they do, the relationship between the health insurance industry and the food industry will undergo a sea change. Read the full article" style="color: rgb(85, 26, 139); ">-->Read the full article

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Through all of this, I think the public option is less important than its been made out to be. My guess is that all the hoopla is driven more by psychological attachment (or opposition) to it as a specific means rather than its efficacy in driving a desired outcome. For example, the GOP argument against the public option is that it would drive private insurers out of business and lead to a government takeover of health care. But this is illogical - if you believe in free markets, private companies would go out of business only if the public plan provided better health care at lower cost. It's a catch-22. Unless Republicans are against lower costs and better care, the only reason for opposing the public option is ideological opposition to anything done by government.


But by the same token, it's important for progressives to remember that the public option is a means to an end, not the end itself. I'm not saying we should not have a public option - far from it, I think it's the simplest way to foster competition, and we should continue calling our Senators to advocate for it. Nor am I questioning the earnestness of progressives' desire for it; I want a public option too. But I do know that it's human nature to attach ourselves to the thing that's most tangible; it's easier to rally in support of a specific policy than to think open-endedly about different ways to achieve a desired goal. That's especially true when the policy we've proposed gets attacked as viciously as the public option has – the attack makes it personal. Psychologically, we react by digging in, further cementing the policy as part of our identity and making it harder to consider other options. If you need some consolation over the probable loss of a public option, check out Nate Silver's post on insurance company share prices. I don't think the Baucus bill will be as big of an insurance company giveaway as everyone thinks it will.


I work in the world of sales and marketing consulting, and we've got a saying, "Oil companies don't need drills - they need holes." And Americans don't need better access to treatment - we need to be healthier. A public option is still desirable, but I'm optimistic that the Baucus bill actually does a lot better than many give it credit for.



RELATED POSTS:

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

The catch-22 for opponents of health care reform: more health insurance economics

The public option is looking more in trouble by the day – just yesterday, it was rejected by the Senate Finance Committee – which means I need to hurry up and get in the rest of what I wanted to say about health care. In particular, I wanted to finish eviscerating the quagmire of absurd arguments against the public option before it’s all over and everyone stops caring.


We’ve all heard the fuss over a “government takeover of healthcare,” which, as I’ve explained before, makes no sense. The public option is just that: an option. The government adding itself to the list of insurance providers can only provide more choice, not less.


The Senators must have been reading my blog, because I haven’t heard much of the “public option equals government takeover” argument of late. Now, the argument is more subtle. The public option would not be a government takeover today, but rather would lead to a takeover down the road by running private insurers out of business – in the words of Sen. Orin Hatch, the public option is “a Trojan horse for a single-payer system.”


Of course, this raises a serious question – or rather two. First, would it really lead to a single-payer system (government option is the only choice)? And second, even if it did, why would that necessarily be a bad thing?


Coming from a capitalist, the first argument makes little sense. If the market always produces the best solution, and the government is always inefficient and corrupt, how could a government run health insurance scheme run the supposedly superior firms out of business? The “magic of the market” is that the better option always wins.


Opponents of reform counter that the government would compete unfairly, allowing the government program to undercut private insurers on price. Of all the premiums private insurers collect, 15-25% go to sales and marketing and administrative costs – after all, they have to pay actuaries to estimate customers’ health risks so they can figure out how much to charge and who to exclude. These costs would be unnecessary for the government program. And of course, private insurers also need room for profits. In other words, government competition would be unfair because it can provide better service at a lower cost.


The obvious question at this point is, why is that a bad thing?


In fact, health care economics suggests that a single-payer government program should be the only option. Insurance works by pooling risk – there’s no money selling insurance to sick people, but if you pool enough people together paying premiums, most of whom are NOT sick, the healthy people essentially fund the sick. The more people you have in a risk pool, the lower the chance that a catastrophe to any one person will threaten the solvency of the overall pool, and the lower premiums you can charge.


Now, you may counter that all industries benefit from scale. Wouldn’t this argument justify the government taking over all industries? That WOULD be socialist!


Well, no. Unlike industries that transform raw materials into finished goods, profitability in the insurance industry is not technology-driven. Insurance companies are in the business of math – estimating and betting on risk. Whereas a factory can invent technologies that allow it to produce more stuff at lower cost, there’s no technology that enables you to squeeze another unit of math out of a dollar of cost.


If the goal is to provide as many people as possible with access to health care, there are only two ways to increase the amount of coverage you can provide for a given premium: reduce overhead costs or increase the size of the risk pool.


A single-payer system wins on both counts. A government program whose goal was to cover everyone would not have to hire actuaries to figure out who was too risky to cover, nor would a single-payer system need sales and marketing. A single-payer system would also create the largest possible risk pool, achieving the highest economic efficiencies. Sure, you’d be paying for it in taxes, but because of these efficiencies, the amount of the tax would be less than what you (and your company) currently pay in insurance premiums; your take home pay would therefore increase by more than your taxes.


Reform opponents are caught in a catch-22. If they’re right about the absolute efficacy of markets, then private insurers will easily be able to reform themselves and out-compete any lumbering and inefficient government-provided option. But if opponents’ fears are founded, and the public option would inevitably run the private companies out of business, that begs the question – if private health insurance can’t provide the same or better service than the government at a given price, why should health insurance be a private industry in the first place? If the government option turned out to be better, well then there’s no reason to bemoan the demise of private insurance. And there’s even a safety value: if insurance companies were all driven out of business, and the government option grew inefficient and corrupt over time, some clever entrepreneur should inevitably emerge to take on the government and steal its customers, making a tidy profit. What this proves is that a government insurance program can never leave you worse off.


So why do “free market” conservatives oppose expanding people’s choice so vehemently? My thinking is that conservatives aren’t so much in favor of free markets as they are opposed to anything that would make existing businesses have to work harder to earn their keep. If you increase business’s costs or competition, that might actually force them to innovate, and that would be, well, CHANGE.


Related posts:


WSJ inadvertently supports case for health care reform: do you want to trust your health to profit and loss?


There's no money in selling insurance to sick people: more reasons free markets don't work in health care


The Takeover: What opponents of health care reform don't get


Are Sarah Palin and Martin Feldstein closet universal health care supporters?

Monday, August 31, 2009

The Takeover: What opponents of health care reform don't get


U-S-A, we runnin’ this health shit

Obama, we runnin’ this health shit

Death panels, we runnin’ this health shit

Get zipped up in plastic—when it happens, that’s it.


It’s the takeover, the break’s over. They’re coming for you, so take cover.


The President and his panel of experts think they know better than you and your doctor how to treat what ails you. The government takeover of health care will put a bureaucrat in charge of deciding what health care you get—decisions which are best left between you and your doctor!


More insidiously, the experts think they can pick out which individuals are most valuable to society, and therefore most deserving health care. Fail to make the productivity cut, and that’s it—you get zipped up in plastic, no matter how badly YOU think you deserve to get that expensive lifesaving treatment.


That’s what health insurance companies Republicans want you to believe, and that’s what countless misguided people at town halls across the country are shouting.


The obvious flaw in this line of thinking is that no one is talking about having government decide which treatments would be allowed, but rather which treatments would be paid for by the government under a public option. That’s not a “takeover” of health care. Doctors would not be employed by the government. Private insurance companies would still exist, and you could still buy insurance from them—and if you didn’t like your coverage or couldn’t afford it, you’d now have the option of buying insurance through the government.


Even if the government insurance option did drive private insurers out of business (I’ll post later on this), you’d still have the option of paying out of pocket for treatments the government opted not to cover. Only if you were BANNED outright from buying health care beyond what the government covered could reform be considered a “government takeover.”


And in fact, when people understand that the public option is government insurance, not government health care, they overwhelmingly support the President’s plan. As Nate Silver points out, most people don’t understand what a “public option” is, but when you explain it clearly as this poll does, asking “Do you support or oppose giving people the option of being covered by a government health insurance plan that would compete with private plans,” 62% support the plan, versus 32% opposed. Defeating health care reform thus DEPENDS on people believing LIES.


That’s strike one.


The other absurdity in the “bureaucrats making health care decisions” argument is that, well, that’s what happens in private insurance too. Your insurance company already makes decisions about what treatments it will and won’t pay for, which is why doctors have to spend up to a third of their time filing paperwork, battling to convince the company bureaucracies to cover your treatments. In fact, the insurance company bureaucracies unnecessarily waste $286 billion PER YEAR.


So extreme are insurance company efforts to ration treatment that they’ll even revoke your coverage after you’ve paid years of premiums, a practice called “rescission.” Reposting from an earlier entry:


This has happened 20,000 times over the past 5 years (at least one company evaluates its employees on savings from rescinded policies). Here’s how it works. When you get a diagnosis that will require expensive treatment, it triggers a processso-called “denial engine” software, to see if you forgot to report any illness on your initial health status questionnaire; if there’s been even one mistake, no matter how small, they revoke coverage from you and your entire family (of course, without refunding all those premiums you paid). You can have your coverage rescinded for something as simple as shortness of breath or hay fever. Health care rationing indeed. by which your insurance company scours your medical records, using


Unsurprising considering the insurance company bureaucrat has a profit motive to provide as little care as possible. Rationing care is how insurance companies make money!


Simply put, the idea that health care decisions are solely between you and your doctor assumes that there are no constraints on your ability to pay. Otherwise it’s not a choice made freely by you and your doctor, but one limited to the treatment options you can afford—you’re consulting your doctor, your own preferences… and your budget.


Arguing against universal coverage on the grounds that it leads to “rationing” is like arguing against food for the homeless because they aren't deciding what food or how much of it the charity gives them. Creating a public option can only give people MORE choices, not fewer.


So my question for reform opponents is: why is it worse for a government bureaucrat to make these calls than an insurance company bureaucrat?


RELATED POSTS:


There's no money in selling insurance to sick people: more reasons free markets don't work in health care


The catch-22 for opponents of health care reform


WSJ inadvertently supports case for health care reform: do you want to trust your health to profit and loss?


Are Sarah Palin and Martin Feldstein closet universal health care supporters?